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NLVC the Yellow River: capital of the double-edged sword of the industrial robot industry is facing the most uncertain variables

Yellow River

In November 2018 09, 09:42 source: 138479.xyz - People's venture capital

Capital, capital, or capital.

Although most companies in the industry as the most familiar characters, but the capital has been quietly played a role can not be ignored. In fact, even in the nearly two or three years ago, the industrial robot industry did not enter the public capital perspective, in addition to some long-time automation and manufacturing industry very few investors, most investors still focus on such as TMT, medical and other popular sectors, so even if the industry has a small number of capital into the event, did not cause too many people's attention. But with the Internet industry lost, and was unable to bear the high level of market valuation, more and more capital began looking for new investment direction and targets. In recent years, capital seems to be about to see the road, begin to pay more attention to this has been completely in the spotlight of the industry. As the outcome of interest, the rapid influx of a large number of capital investment, a large number of layout in each position of the industrial chain, a good writings make people copy them. showing a thriving, the scene. However, if calm observation but will find in this scene behind, hidden deeper is all kinds of chaos in the industry, and even changed the ecological industry.

The industrial robot industry although it sounds very tall on, but manufacturing is hundred-percent, in other words, the basic law still have to follow the manufacturing industry. A business is slow growth, long time to accumulate before reaching the breaking point; the second is generally low profit margins, not comparable with many high margin industries; the third is more fierce competition, the entry threshold is not high. Before a lot of capital into the industry, has been in a natural stage exploration, self adjustment, growth, further exploration, this natural development although slower, but the industry also has its rationality, no subsidies, no capital boost, grow out from the head of enterprise is the real market tested, have the strong competitiveness of enterprises. But with the government subsidies and the intervention of the capital, like other domestic subsidies and accept the capital involved in the industry, ecological industry has undergone great changes. The first is a group of people in the industry have speculative mentality, this group of people the purpose is very clear, to get subsidies, take a walk, which created two years ago over the robot industrial park, finally a feather mess phenomenon. Government subsidies have not disappeared, from the Internet industry to invest into people and come in a throng. This batch of capital still with the Internet thinking mark is very strong, they pay more attention to the team is "dressed", the story logic is "reasonable", the company can dream of explosive growth, three years listed, is not sensitive to the valuation. But they completely missed the point, this is a completely different manufacturing industry and the Internet Ecosystem, to respect the basic law of development of manufacturing industry.

The manufacturing industry has its own special development law and industry characteristics, any achievement in manufacturing team or individual, at least have fought in the industry for more than 10 years of experience, on numerous pits, eaten countless losses, have a profound understanding and cognition of the industry, this team is may really have a strong fighting force, and the Internet industry by an idea can create a miracle is completely different. The average age of the manufacturing business team are in the 35 years old, just out of college or research institutes, there is no industry experience and is known to dominate the industry is tell some fantastic tales. However, due to the traditional characteristics of the industry, practitioners and capital basically in the isolated state, completely unaware of the capital and capital operation, because before the industry did not cognition, still with the inherent thinking, the information asymmetry between the two sides have reached a very high degree. Some investors are more willing to look for the so-called "excellent team", which has a history of school background, bright young people, this group of young people active thinking, familiar with the capital, familiar with the capital market road, so that investors can speak the language and exciting story, his package for the capital and the true love; have the strength of the team usually looks has neither star aura or high degree, but do not understand the capital, talk like "speak the same language, so the final choice of capital is mostly a team, this is a kind of investment based on prior knowledge and judgment, kezhouqiujian is. However, even as the "four people" in the staff Yaskawa, at least 1/3 Japan and graduated from college, most of the rest of the university graduates, this is very rare, almost, practitioners structure typical manufacturing company;

Secondly, the characteristics of 2B industrial robot downstream, and the dispersion of the long tail of customers are made early market development stage is very difficult, even if the industry veteran also need time to. Before gradually establish the market position and into the fast lane, 3 to 5 years of waiting is a relatively optimistic estimate, in other words, "overnight" story can't happen here, then the valuation will become very important, not high explosive growth in the industry should use the high valuation itself is a disaster. It is safe to foresee, the most in 3 to 5 years, the industrial robot industry and vision industry has recently been touted all kinds of capital market valuation "red net company" will vanish, and investors after the hand over enough tuition, or learn how to look at this before are not familiar with the industry, continue to toil; either directly from the industry. This time once industry will bring to the number of immature capital Carnival to pay, this damage is not unilateral, but two-way, not only for the company, but also for the industry.

In the company, the capital of not understanding the characteristics of the industry, have high expectations unrealistic for the company's growth rate, pay a high valuation, which means that the capital of the company to give considerable pressure, because of the nature of capital is profit driven, especially short-term capital profit trend will be more obvious. In that the company grows up as expected, this pressure will lead to more action, deformation, not well executed its strategy and tactics, and lack of hematopoietic ability, can only rely on non-stop story to get another round of financing higher valuations, alleviate the pressure from the previous round of investors. But the story does not last, unable to obtain limited time once the company can wait in the investor's corresponding progress, but also to see the essence of capital industry, gradually return to rational, the bubble will burst.

In the industry, it is difficult to blindly into the capital to fund the right business entities, and ridiculous valuations will lead to some "red" in neither technology and no market will get a lot of money. This mismatch of funds is only if the startup is exhausted, but damage is not too big, at least let get talent in the industry is the high cost, but if the company use money wantonly expansion in the industry is around poaching, or vicious price competition, this kind of industry is not hurt a tiny bit, but from the previous observation, this company due to the lack of technology and market ability, get the money later, bound to the action. It will not only make good company natural development industry in the face of vicious competition, affecting its normal development, and the one thousand enemy self injury eight hundred practices will eventually lead to the spread of vicious competition in the industry, will have the normal development of the industry into a quagmire, badly hurt. And the more capital intensive industries to enter, such things happen more frequently, so the industry's capital is the real big suffering from evil. As for the industrial robot industry, the negative effect may be more obvious. Mainly because of the industrial robot industry is a capital intensive industry, the capital of the huge demand, the impact of capital can produce both positive and negative are huge. In this industry background, outstanding company in the industry must take the initiative to learn the knowledge, capital associated with capital, knowledge capital, and make good use of capital, not be complacent, otherwise it is prone to bad money drives out good effect. In fact, now the industrial robot industry has seen a lot of capital bubble, if unchecked, industry prospects. Once the bubble burst, companies damaged large area, the development of the whole industry will be at least three to five years lag.

But we need to see is that capital is a double-edged sword, if can make good use of capital, not only will not cause damage to the industry, but will greatly accelerate the development of the industry. There is no good or bad capital property, the key is to look for what kind of place. Whether it is the expansion of a large number of R & D companies needed to enhance the technical capacity or investment, have a strong demand for capital. Even in the next second stages, on industrial chain, from parts to ontology to integrate each chain after the initial development, must be through the acquisition of a large amount of operation to achieve the upgrading of the industrial integration and re positioning, the capital will play a very important role.

The future of "crisis" and "opportunity" coexist, the industrial robot industry should not repeat the domestic industry many other low-cost Siju, warning, after the car cover.

The current Chinese downstream industrial robot market has not fully opened, taking body or in some single category and application in a large number of low quality and low price, mutual rolling, so if you do not find a better path, the blue ocean market and desserts, so the final victory in the field of ontology, it is difficult to be the current market share of the top active. For parts business, whether it is the controller or reducer, are in the initial stages of faltering, requires a lot of investment in research and development to improve the product, shorten the distance between with the international giants. If the downstream blindly suppress profit margins, to invest in R & D, natural products can not be further improved, which means lower body still only in the application of some lower requirements, but also low barriers to low-cost occasion fight, into a vicious cycle, and may even directly destroy the Chinese industrial robot industry just started. The current industrial robot market is like a chess situation dangerous game, all game player, no matter how the scenery, if not out of the current situation of this low price competition, the future is likely to be a wrong, all bets are ending. The solution of key grip in the hands of bureau of body taking pain points, find the terminal stronger payment ability of the application, develop different application scenarios of the blue ocean market, jump out of the inertia of thinking of low price competition, to set aside the upstream parts manufacturers enough profit space, carry out their duties, to do their own thing, work together through the China industrial robot child to create a good competitive environment, in order to open up a broad road for the industrial robot industry.

I think that in this process, the winning enterprises will have the following characteristics: in some or all of the deep understanding of capital and make good use of capital; a more comprehensive layout in key parts, regardless of their own research and development, acquisitions or equity parts enterprise; have certain ability of integrated application. Downstream terminal customer application needs a profound understanding and can develop different application market. The growing up China local industrial robot business will eventually become the new China "four people", and the traditional industry giants compete. (the author NLVC partner of the Yellow River)

(commissioning editor Huang Lingli and Zhang Chen)

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